IND vs PAK preview: India firm favourites as Dubai miracle only hope for Pakistan
NEW DELHI, FEB 23 : “India-Pakistan has a long history. It’s an exciting contest when these two teams play. Everyone enjoys watching it. If so many people are happy to watch the match, then who are we to say that it is underhyped or overhyped?” India vice-captain Shubman Gill said when asked if the mother of all battles had lost its sheen over the years.
It’s February 23, another Sunday in an ICC tournament — this time, the Champions Trophy 2025 — where India and Pakistan are set to face off. Television broadcast records will likely be shattered, the Dubai International Cricket Stadium will be packed to the rafters.
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However, India vs Pakistan remains a marquee clash in ICC tournaments, not solely because of the anticipation surrounding the quality of cricket but largely due to the infrequency of meetings between the two arch-rivals.
The dynamics of this rivalry have shifted since the 1990s. Once a dominant force, Pakistan have struggled in recent years, with the gulf in class between the two sides widening as India, unlike their neighbours, continue to produce a conveyor belt of talent. Take Rishabh Pant, for example: one of the top wicketkeeper-batters in the world, yet likely to be benched on Sunday. In contrast, Pakistan, hamstrung by injuries, will be scrambling to assemble a batting line-up capable of withstanding the quality of India’s bowling attack, even in the absence of Jasprit Bumrah, the world’s best bowler.
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The hype around the contest remains, but that old tingling feeling among Indian fans-the fear of facing a truly world-class bowling attack featuring Imran Khan, Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis, and Shoaib Akhtar-has faded. For Pakistan fans, the Babar Azams and Mohammad Rizwans don’t inspire the same hope that the Inzamam-ul-Haqs and Javed Miandads once did.
80-20 IN FAVOUR OF INDIA?
India will enter Sunday’s Group A encounter as overwhelming favourites. Some pundits predict an 80-20 split in India’s favour. Given recent form and man-to-man matchups, it is difficult to see how Pakistan can realistically be given a chance of winning.
Anyone predicting a Pakistan victory is doing so more out of hope than logic. India are, without doubt, the superior side. Any fan dedicating eight hours of their Sunday to watching this game will be hoping for a close contest-something that has been a rarity in India-Pakistan matches since the start of the millennium.
Former India fast bowler Atul Wassan went so far as to say he hopes Pakistan beat India for the sake of adding spice to the Champions Trophy, likening India’s dominance to a predictable Bollywood film where Amitabh Bachchan keeps knocking down villains without taking a hit himself.
CONTRASTING MOODS IN THE CAMPS
India are brimming with confidence after their comfortable win against Bangladesh in Dubai on Thursday. Defending champions Pakistan, on the other hand, are in danger of exiting their first major tournament at home in 29 years as early as the group stage.
It will take a miracle for Pakistan to wriggle out of trouble in the Champions Trophy. Their net run rate took a hit after a 60-run loss to New Zealand in the tournament opener in Karachi. The injury to Fakhar Zaman, who orchestrated India’s downfall in the 2017 Champions Trophy final, has further weakened their batting arsenal, tilting the balance even more in India’s favour.
WILL CONDITIONS IN DUBAI SUIT PAKISTAN?
Pakistan’s strength has traditionally been their bowling. Be it the T20 World Cup victory in 2021 or the Champions Trophy game in 2017, their fast bowlers stepped up.
However, heading into Sunday’s big game, their current trio-Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, and Haris Rauf-have been far from their best. Coach Aaqib Javed, who knows a thing or two about hurting India with the ball, tried to motivate them by comparing them to Wasim, Waqar, and Shoaib in a press conference on Saturday. But he was quick to retract, admitting they have a long way to go before drawing such comparisons.
“Look, I have heard lots of options and discussions going on. Other teams have too many spinners and we have lesser spin options. The teams play their game on their own strength. We have like a specialist three, I would say one of the best pace bowling options in today’s game with Shaheen, Naseem, and Haris. It reminds me of the 90’s. So, I think reaching that level still they have time, but they have all the ability to repeat those sorts of performances,” Javed said.
Yes, Shaheen and Haris are among the bowlers with the best strike rates in ODIs since the start of the 2023 World Cup, but they have not looked the same since their recent injury concerns. Naseem, arguably the best of the three, has been overburdened due to the dip in performances of the other two. Against New Zealand, Shaheen and Haris looked toothless for the most part of the game as the BlackCaps amassed 320.
The conditions in Dubai will not be as quick as they were during the T20 World Cup in 2021. The pitches have tired after a full season of the ILT20, UAE’s premier franchise-based T20 tournament. If the ball sits up on a sluggish pitch instead of zipping past batters, the Pakistani pace attack could struggle.
With no dew in the second innings, the pitch slowed down considerably during the India-Bangladesh game. Thanks to India’s strong bowling show in the first innings, they didn’t have to chase more than 229.
From the evidence of that game, teams will need more than one specialist spinner to exploit the sluggishness through the middle overs. Bangladesh managed to do so to an extent, but Pakistan have only one specialist spinner in Abrar Ahmed, who is relatively inexperienced in ODIs.
A SILVER LINING FOR PAKISTAN?
However, there is a silver lining for Pakistan. They might be better positioned to take on India in Dubai than on batting-friendly pitches like Karachi and Lahore, which hosted a game on Saturday when Australia scripted a tournament record chase of 352 in just 47.3 overs against England. The slowness of the surface might prevent India from batting Pakistan out of the game. If Pakistan can post 260-280 or chase a similar target, they could be competitive. But if it turns into a high-scoring contest, their chances of winning are negligible because of the lack of genuine firepower in their batting unit.
TEAM NEWS: INDIA VS PAKISTAN
Pakistan suffered a major blow with Fakhar Zaman ruled out due to injury. Imam-ul-Haq has been added as his replacement and is likely to slot straight in. They also have Kamran Ghulam, Faheem Ashraf, and Usman Khan if they opt to bolster the middle order. Saud Shakeel, who opened against New Zealand, could partner Babar Azam at the top.
India, meanwhile, are unlikely to tinker with their winning combination, though they might consider bringing in the mystery spin of Varun Chakravarthy. Arshdeep Singh replacing Harshit Rana appears unlikely.
India: Rohit Sharma (C), Shubman Gill (VC), Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Axar Patel, KL Rahul (WK), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Harshit Rana, Mohammed Shami.
Pakistan: Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam, Saud Shakeel, Mohammad Rizwan (C & WK), Salman Ali Agha, Tayyab Tahir, Khushdil Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf, Abrar Ahmed.
FORM GUIDE
India: Won 3-0 vs England at home before beating Bangladesh in the CT 2025 opener.
Pakistan: Lost 2 out of 3 matches, including the final, in a home tri-series before losing to New Zealand.
MATCH-UPS TO WATCH
Will Rohit Sharma trump Shaheen Afridi once again? (PTI Photo)
Rohit Sharma vs Shaheen Afridi: The left-arm pacer has troubled Rohit in the past, but the Indian captain dominated him in their last ODI World Cup meeting in Ahmedabad.
Virat Kohli vs Abrar Ahmed: Kohli has struggled against spin lately, getting out to Adil Rashid twice in three ODIs against England and to Rishad Hossain in the game against Bangladesh. Abrar might fancy his chances.
Salman Ali Agha vs Indian spinners: Salman is known for unsettling spinners with sweeps and inside-out shots. Kuldeep Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, and Axar Patel will look to counter him.
Mohammed Shami vs Babar Azam: Shami is back to his best. The five-wicket haul against Bangladesh after a long injury layoff would have boosted his confidence. With Babar struggling for fluency as a makeshift opener, an early wicket is on the cards.
PREDICTION: WHO WILL WIN IND VS PAK?
If form is anything to go by, India should win comfortably. However, a cornered Pakistan can always spring a surprise. Rule them out at your own peril — though, truth be told, this assessment is driven more by hope than logic.
-PTI
