Relax, fourth wave isn’t building: Experts

NEW DELHI,APRIL 16:  Health experts sought to dispel fear of an impending Covid wave in India, saying the gradual rise in infections in the past one week was due to the lifting of restrictions. The recent spurt of cases as seen in some states like Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, Kerala, and Mizoram is just a fluctuation, they said, asserting that there was no need to panic.

“It’s a small fraction, less than 1 per cent. Based on this, one can’t say a wave as it will lead to panic,” said Dr J P Muliyil, a member of the Covid working group of the National Technical Advisory Group (NTAGI) on Immunisation.

None of the schoolchildren, who are testing positive for Covid, are getting hospitalised, he said. “Schoolchildren were not infected earlier during the third Omicron wave. This will ensure that they will get immunity.” There is a “slight increase” in Covid cases which is not due to a new variant, Muliyil said. ‘‘It is Omicron only.”

Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) president Prof  KS Reddy said it was too early to talk about a wave. ‘‘While there can be some spike in cases with a fully open society, a wave of serious cases is unlikely in the next six-eight weeks unless a virulent variant emerges.”

He said one must distinguish between mild or asymptomatic infections and severe cases when considering a fresh wave. “The latter is unlikely, based on present immunity levels in the population and the nature of circulating variants. We still need to keep a watch and adopt safety measures to reduce our exposure to the virus.”

In March, researchers at IIT-Kanpur predicted that the fourth wave may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August. But the government had said then that the claims need to be examined. According to Prof Manindra Agrawal of IIT-Kanpur, it is inevitable that a slight increase in Covid cases will be observed. “The gradual increase was bound to happen.

The moment you lift restrictions, there will be an increase in numbers. We have to wait and see. In many countries, the same happened. There was an increase in numbers, and then it started dropping,” said Agrawal, who is in charge of the IIT-Kanpur CII Risk Surveillance Centre. “India is reporting 1,000-1,200 cases a day. Some states show 100-150 cases, which is a minimal number. We should not create panic,” he told this daily.

-TNIE